Air University Review , July-August 1980

Energy: Spark of Future Conflict?

President Richard M. Nixon
November 1973

Secretary of Defense Harold Brown
August 1977

THE ENERGY imbroglio is without doubt one of the most critical issues facing our society today. Moreover, if the sheer weight of energy-related publications is a measure of significance, then the countless tons of pages printed in just the past five years elevate the topic to paramount importance.

Many strategists believe the energy-importing nations of the world to be in a Scylla-Charybdis situation with an undesirable dependence on foreign producers on one hand and a severe detriment to military capabilities and national security on the other. Whether this situation will lead to future conflict is conjecture. We know that it has in the past. The subject of energy, including Sources and types, has long been a cause of factionalism and friction. History is replete with conflicts over energy Sources or conflicts where energy played an important role in determining the eventual outcome. For example, after D-day, 1944, German oil production became the highest priority target for Allied air strikes. Consequently, throughout the summer of 1944, German Panzer divisions in the field were severely hampered by fuel shortages. After the war, high-ranking German officers revealed that an early Allied air offensive against their petroleum industry would probably have significantly shortened the conflict.

When one considers that the Department of the Air Force alone during 1976 used about 8 percent of this nation's petroleum production and, in time of war, is projected to require 20 percent of the V.S. crude oil production, it is readily apparent that modern military forces are as dependent on energy sources as were the Allied and Axis powers during World War II.

Since most of our nation's energy needs are for petroleum and foreign imports currently account for half of the United States' oil requirements, the situation is ominous. For this reason, I will first review books on petroleum issues, then works about atomic energy, natural gas, and other energy Sources.

Robert Engler provides an indepth account of the politics of oil and how it has shaped international relations over the past several years.* He begins by describing events Surrounding the Arab oil embargo against countries aiding Israel in 1973. The restrictions caused severe shortages of petroleum products in the United States. The scarcity of oil extended even to Department of Defense activities and caused a thorough reevaluation of missions and priorities. Sharp price increases came as part of the shortages. Engler reports that Saudi Arabian oil revenues went from $3 billion in 1972 to more than $27 billion in 1974. Thus it is not surprising that Saudi Arabia emerged from the crisis as a leader in the world's petroleum industry.

*Robert Engler, The Brotherhood of Oil: Energy Policy and the Public Interest (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1977, $12.50), 337 pages.

In the spring of 1974, when the embargo was lifted, the energy-importing countries of the world began assessing the situation in an effort to determine their new international economic position. They discovered that the Western world was rapidly coming under new management because of oil. Engler then provides an authoritative evaluation of the policies that placed America and several other countries in such a vulnerable position. He points out that government's role over the years has been to keep the price of oil relatively low, thus encouraging a high consumption rate. The government's actions were a direct result of close association with the major oil companies. The relationship stemmed from the mutual view that our national security depended heavily on a stable, profitable domestic petroleum industry. As late as the end of 1972, the National Petroleum Council was still urging (despite brownouts and other energy shortages) retention of the oil import control program to protect the nation and the oil industry against the "menace of unrestricted imports."

The author then discusses how this feeling of oneness between the U.S. petroleum industry and our national security interests led to continued governmental support of oil companies' policies both at home and abroad, and how this sustentation led to our current vulnerability to the energy-producing countries. Throughout, Engler supports his assertions with ample documentation. Overall, The Brotherhood of Oil is an excellent source on the politics of petroleum.

THE economics of oil are discussed at length in The Changing Economics of World Energy.* The editor, Bernhard J. Abrahamsson, presents several papers that were given at the Rocky Mountain Petroleum Economics Institute. The collection provides a broad look at the petroleum-related problems the United States will have to face in coming years. All the articles are written by prominent scholars, most of whom seem to have one message, i.e., our nation's leaders should develop an energy policy aimed at eventually making us self-sufficient. The Changing Economics of World Energy is a useful addition to a library concerned with the world's power situation.

*Bernhard J. Abrahamsson, editor, The Changing Economics of World Energy (Boulder, Colorado: Westview, 1976, $18.75), 165 pages.

THE American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research is a public supported, nonpartisan research organization. Its publications provide "objective analysis of national and international issues." Energy for Europe,** from that organization, is an interdisciplinary work presaging the energy future of Europe through 1985. The book begins with a country-by-country review of Europe's energy history and proceeds to the current circumstances and national policies that have been hurriedly developed. In addition, since oil is as important to Europe as it is to the United States, de Carmoy examines four reasons why the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is stronger than any producer cartel in the past: First, oil is the most important energy source in the world, and OPEC countries control 90 percent of world crude oil exports and 71 percent of proven reserves. Second, the price elasticity of demand for petroleum products is low. Third, OPEC is strong because there are now no satisfactory substitutes for oil. Fourth, Saudi Arabia's dominance in OPEC serves to ensure the group's cohesiveness.

**Guy de Carmoy, Energy for Europe (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise, 1977, $3.25), 120 pages.

By contrast, de Carmoy points out that, at present consumption rates, Europe's energy reserves will be exhausted by the year 2015. With the obvious prospect of considerable medium- and long-term imports adding to the asymmetric economic interdependence between Europe and oil-exporting countries, the author offers a rather simplistic solution: he advocates optimum management of Europe's limited resources. To support his recommendation, he quotes Mason Willrich: "In a world of politically independent nation-states, too much economic interdependency may lead to insecurity in particular nations and thus to instability in the international system as a whole." If this comes to pass, de Carmoy states, a European drift from the U. S. umbrella to a Soviet protectorate is conceivable due to the U.S.S.R's energy self-sufficiency. He assumes that Russia is self-sufficient, and this, of course, is debatable. In summary, Energy for Europe is a thought-provoking work and worthy of reading.

Europe and the United States have investigated several alternatives to oil, perhaps the most controversial of which is nuclear power.

In the opening section of The Menace of Atomic Energy,* Ralph Nader and John Abbotts provide an excellent background on another source of energy, nuclear power. The title betrays their feelings about atomic energy. The dedication then states that ". . . those who are trying to replace nuclear energy sources with alternatives such as solar energy are owed our everlasting gratitude."

*Ralph Nader and John Abbotts, The Menace of Atomic Energy (New York: Norton, 1977, $10.95), 414 pages.

The remainder of the book, then, is anticlimactic. While the authors make several ponderable points about the hazards associated with nuclear reactors and related hardware, the reader is virtually overpowered by their parochialism. The work teems with quotes such as "Faustian bargain for society," "technological Vietnam," and "courageous dissenters." On the other hand, chapter two does contain an authoritative and easily understandable description of the workings of the various types of nuclear reactors now in use. In a later chapter, Nader and Abbotts devote their attention to extolling the virtues of solar energy and provide only exiguous discussions of other alternatives to atomic power plants. Overall, The Menace if Atomic Energy is an important, if opinionated, book. Its authors ask some very disturbing questions about nuclear energy's past and its place in our present society.

THE Silent Bomb is another compilation of articles, these decrying the dangers atomic reactors confront our society and environment with.** Initially, this very one-sided book lists three main reasons for public concern. One is that at present there is no satisfactory method of permanently disposing of radioactive wastes a reactor produces. The second cause for concern is the accidental release of radioactive materials that would occur in the event of a meltdown and an accompanying containment rupture. The final reason for concern is that eventually criminals or terrorist groups will threaten society by attempting to sabotage or steal nuclear materials.

**Peter T. Faulkner, editor, The Silent Bomb (New York: Random House, 1977, $10.95), 382 pages.

The Silent Bomb presents 23 essays on nuclear power-related subjects. Topics are past near-disasters, basic information about atomic reactors and safety, the nuclear power industry, some controversies, and views of the future. To keep this issue in proper perspective, the reader should remember that it presents emotional environmentalists' points of view.

Another energy source that has been the subject of numerous books and articles is gas.

Transporting Natural Gas from the Arctic, The Alternative Systems is another of the Studies in Energy Policy of the American Enterprise Institute.* The essay opens with an excellent review of the American natural gas industry's recent past. This concise background serves as a base on which to build a discussion of the three alternative systems proposed for delivering natural gas from Prudhoe Bay, on Alaska's North Slope, to markets in the lower 48 states. The authors provide a detailed investigation of the Arctic Gas, Alcan Pipeline, and El Paso-Alaska proposals. The economic, environmental, and political analyses are based on qualitative and quantitative research and are objective. In addition, the text describes several possible supplements to Prudhoe Bay gas production: increase gas imports from Canada; import liquefied natural gas from Nigeria, Algeria, or elsewhere; manufacture gas from Appalachian shale; make synthetic gas from coal; investigate other known sources not fully explored.

*Walter J. Mead et al., Transporting Natural Gas from the Arctic, The Alternative Systems (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise, 1977, $3.25), 111 pages.

other energy sources

A University of Oklahoma research team has written Our Energy Future.** The book incorporates a discussion of energy supply technologies already mentioned in this article and also covers virtually all other power sources available in America today. It contains thorough examinations and comparisons of solid fuels, gaseous fuels, liquid fuels, electricity, solar power, and many other energy supply alternatives. The authors also describe the role research, development, and demonstration play in increasing the United States' energy-producing capabilities. This ambitious undertaking has resulted in an authoritative reference book on domestic energy resources.

**Don E. Kash et al., Our Energy Future: The Role of Research, Development, and Demonstration in Reaching a National Consensus on Energy Supply (Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 1976, $5.95), 486 pages.

EVEN though these texts range widely into diverse energy-related subjects, a common point emerges. If America is ever to become self-sufficient, it must immediately develop a realistic, long-range energy policy. For, if the energy imbalance is allowed to continue, worldwide competition for limited energy resources could be the spark of future conflict.

Captain Charles A. Royce (B.A., Grove City College; M.B.A., Golden Gate University) is a C-141 pilot, 438^th Military Airlift Wing, McGuire AFB, New Jersey. Until this summer, he was assistant professor of Aerospace Studies at Ohio State University. In previous flying assignments he has logged more than 2100 hours in the T-41, T-37, T-38, and T-29 aircraft, and he has been an administrative management and squadron executive officer. Captain Royce is a Distinguished Graduate of Squadron Office School.

The conclusions and opinions expressed in this document are those of the author cultivated in the freedom of expression, academic environment of Air University. They do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, the United States Air Force or the Air University.

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