Air University Review, March-April 1978

USAF Information Engineering: 1990 Plus

Good evening! Time: 2200. Date: 3 June 1990. Welcome to Futucomm AFB. I am UNIBAC, the central base computer. Please insert your precoded, sensitized ID card into the terminal and repeat your name, rank, and serial number for voice print authentication…. As you can see from the display screen, your records have already been filed with me, and I will update your personnel file and inform the CBPO, finance, and your duty unit that you have arrived. I have also verified that all your family medical and dental records are here. Please call 834-1716 if you have any questions. Thank you and good night.

This scenario sounds strange even to those of us who have lived with the relatively sophisticated communication systems of the '70s. But project yourself into 1990 and a closer look at your surroundings shows that they are even less familiar.

Few clerical people are assigned to your office in the base aerospace maintenance complex. Instead, your terminal, consisting of a keyboard and video system tied to the base computer system, does the work that formerly required many base support people such as secretaries, stock clerks, posting clerks, runners, switchboard operators. For instance, by pressing the "dictation" button on the terminal, you can edit the text as it is displayed on your screen and receive a finished copy for signature. The letter is also forwarded through the system to other offices for coordination and filing as necessary.

In addition, through your video terminal you can participate in conferences and briefings, check the maintenance status of-projects, refer to the latest technical order data updated by video messages from Air Force Logistics Command, and give and receive training--all without leaving your desk. If you are, moving around the base, messages reach you over a pocket unit, or your terminal stores all routine messages until you return. Al! This freedom from confining, routine administrative details gives you more time for your primary job, managing.

Sound fanciful? Just look at all the technological developments of the past ten years. The truth is we now stand on the verge of communication changes that will vastly alter and improve the way we do business.

According to author and information futurist Ben Bagdikian:

In the near future, the computer linked to electronic communications will probably alter personal and social life in ways comparable to the combined changes produced by the telephone, automobile, and television in the last 90 years, but do it in the life-time of most of us.¹

These far-reaching communication developments will impact virtually every aspect of our lives and certainly have a profound effect on how USAF managers function. Hopefully, by giving some insight into what is coming, this article can help avoid the "future shock" these developments portend. for the average USAF manager.

In future communications, two key technological areas--coaxial or cable television (CATV) and word processing computers-seem to hold most potential for USAF application.

To understand cable television, you must first understand the nature of television. Television has been called the greatest instrument of human communication ever developed. Certainly, it is the most pervasive force in American life today. As Nicholas Johnson, former FCC commissioner, states:

There are 60 million homes in the US and over 95 percent of them have TV. (More than 25 percent have two or more.) In the average home, TV is turned on some 5 hours and 45 minutes a day. The average male viewer, between his second and 65th year, will watch TV for over 3000 entire days--roughly nine full years of his life.

Further, according to Johnson, Americans 'receive much more of their education from TV

than from elementary and high schools. "By the time the average child enters kindergarten," he continues, "he has already spent more hours learning about his world from television than the hours he would spend in college earning a bachelor's degree."² Unfortunately, all this exposure is not necessarily good, and television has been blamed for everything from increased violence and drug use to the trivialization of the nation's brainpower.³

American public television, including educational TV, has put up a good fight to provide alternatives, but its history is marked by persistent developmental problems that have retarded its growth. These include an unsteady relationship with government, confusion over its mission and intended audience, and, above all, chronic underfinancing. Despite these problems the Public Broadcasting System has managed to offer some excellent programming.⁴

Given public television's chronic difficulties and commercial television's 25-year big business profit-motivated history, you might well ask how television will ever reach its full potential as a communication medium. The answer probably is not in either of these systems. but the abundance of outlets and innovative opportunities of cable television offer great potential.

Cable or Community Antenna Television (CATV) is not new. The first system was constructed in 1948, only a few years after commercial television broadcasts began in the U.S. As its name implies, CATV consists of a large central antenna, amplifiers to boost the signal, and cables connected to subscriber homes. Until recently, CATV's sole purpose was to give poor reception areas an increased number of channel options, but rent technological developments have broadened cable's capabilities with the promise of more to come.

Early systems could relay no more than five to seven channels. Modern systems can carry up to 30 channels and, in the future, may have any number or multiples of 20 up to 24000.⁵ Two way communication via cable, though not perfected, has been demonstrated experimentally, and computer digitization of video signals is feasible and could vastly increase system versatility. The cable industry is also currently investigating the possibility of linking cable systems nationally via satellites.⁶

Thus, the prospect of cable television, computers, and satellites linked in a common carrier system could produce yet another communication revolution this century. Think of the great variety of innovations possible in this "wired world" environment. The cable is as accepted as the telephone and as necessary as the mail.

Of course, cable television is not a panacea. It has problems--primarily a lack of money and regulatory limitations imposed by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) under pressure from network lobbies. These opposing forces have combined thus far to keep CATV from fulfilling the predictions of the prestigious 1972 Sloan Commission. In its projections for CATV, the commission stated that, "Its (CATV) impact on society's most immediate needs might be enormous."⁷ The optimism of the repent was based on the belief that 40 to 60 percent or all American homes would he "wired" by 1980. To date CATV has reached only 15 percent of American homes, but with favorable legislation in the next few years to ease some restrictions, it could he in 90 percent of tile urban homes by 1990."⁸

How has the Air Force reacted to this potential communication revolution? Until recently, not very well. Certainly USAF has been using closed circuit television (CCTV) in education, security, and weather programs for some time. However, these and other systems were procured to satisfy ''specific'' communication requirements. This approach has resulted in a proliferation of specialized systems with little or no interface capability with present or follow-on systems.⁹ This inherent equipment limitation was further aggravated by rapid technological change and a lack of comprehensive communication plans. There has also been some confusion as to how the USAF should use television.

The 1970 AFR 100-1, "Closed Circuit Television," listed six managerial uses for TV:

• Immediately interchange audio-visual information to meet an operational requirement.
• Immediately transmit audiovisual information to expedite decision-making at high echelons of command.
• Achieve face-to-face communication capability.
• View events of major significance as they occur.
• Attain real-time reporting
• Achieve data remoting

The 1975 version deleted all reference to managerial applications and now recognizes only four routine uses for CCTV: R&D instrumentation, audiovisual production. surveillance, and weather briefing. (Note: There really is little difference between CCTV and CATV. Both use a cable, and both are capable of providing a wide variety of services. CCTV is usually used to refer to a smaller closed system within a building or facility.)

Present USAF policy for CATV in AFR 70-3, "Cable Television (CATV) Systems on USAF Installations," and AFR 190-18, "USAF Internal Information Program," is equally, lacking. AFR 70-3 is devoted to CATV franchise agreements and, in many respects, is a valuable document. One area that should be re-examined, however, is the provision of one reserved on-base channel as a franchise fee. One channel will not be enough to handle future base needs, and since this current policy is. based on today's small-volume systems, it fails to consider the vast capabilities of the future Perhaps exacting a percentage of total channels available would be wiser than asking for a specific number.

The information regulation, AFR 190-18, presents a similar problem in that it perpetuates a traditional view of CATV as largely a commercial TV reception improvement device. While it does propose some base CATV uses, such as broadcasting commander's call, base orientation. and other programs, its narrow view does not recognize the true potential of the cable in future base information systems.

One of the central problems concerning USAF's entry into the cable age is the lack of a single Office of Primary Responsibility (OFR) for system development. An October 1976 Secretary of the Air Force Office of Information (SAFOI) study showed that of the 48 bases with CATV installed, only 56 percent obtained the required franchise fee dedicated channel. Further, none of the 27 bases that had the channel had any comprehensive use plans. Only six bases had designated OPRs, and these six chose the office of information.¹⁰ Given the tremendous potential of the cable as a base communication asset, it would seem more prudent to charge the, base communication unit with responsibility for developing plans that could benefit all potential base users through base Communications Electronic Meteorological Hoard activities.

So, there is great promise in CATV, but there are severe regulatory and economic problems that must be overcome before the promise can he fulfilled. There is also a philosophical question that must be answered in the USAF. What role will CATV play in future USAF communications? Beyond these problems, however, is the fundamental question of "how much information people can absorb." The cable, with its abundance of choice, could overload the human reception capability."

One area where we are already overloaded is in printed pages. As Bagdikian points out, "The fact is that print, for quite prosaic reasons, may be reaching the upper limits of its usefulness to man: the accumulation of published paper since the invention of printing five hundred years ago has become so massive that it is too difficult to manage."¹²

Newspapers; along with all forms of printed material, have experienced massive multiplication of printed pages. In the last 20 years, the number of pages entering the home has increased two and one-half times, and a 400-page Sunday paper is not uncommon. Such a paper is the equivalent of more than sixteen 300-page books.¹³ It is not surprising, then, that our newspapers spend more than 80 percent of their budgets on production.¹⁴

There is some parallel between newspaper production and USAF administration functions, and anyone who has fought the never-ending "battle of the in basket" knows how much USAF paperwork volume has increased. Since the written word is key to both operations, perhaps we can learn from the newspaper industry's application of computers to word processing functions.

Every newspaper has a system for converting news into type. New typesetting machines are much more efficient than older models, but there is still a great deal of time lost in the editing process. Usually, the writer has the basics in his story, but some editing is required. The key is to preserve as many of the original keystrokes as possible without retyping after each editing process. ¹⁵

Computers, video display terminals (VDT), optical character recognition (OCR) machines, and other forms of new technology are beginning to decrease editing time. Typed copy with minor editing marks is now fed through an OCR machine and converted into type at vastly improved speeds up to 1500 words a minute, This process is good for volume input but tends to be ineffective when copy must be heavily edited.¹⁶

Video display terminals, on the other hand, seem to hold the most promise for speed in editing. By pressing a button, an editor can call up any story from computer storage to his video screen. Working with a keyboard (or light pencil on more sophisticated versions), he can add or delete words and rearrange paragraphs as required. This process can be repeated by any number of editors, and when the story is ready, it is fed into computerized typesetting machinery and then printed.¹⁷ Thus, scanners are great for volume input, but video terminals are better for selective input and editing. In addition, they provide direct computer links and ready access to a variety of reference information at computer-to computer speeds of 2400 words a minute.¹⁸

But newspapers are not alone in their recognition of the economies word processing computers can produce. Other industries are beginning to establish word processing centers that concentrate all administrative support paperwork functions in one area. This allows for cost-effective use of modern electronic office systems to extend worker productivity. The USAF is very much interested in this concept, and phototype centers have been set up at Hq USAF and several major commands. However, here, as in the CATV area, there is little central guidance, and the commands seem to be developing their programs independently.

So most of the computer technology mentioned in the opening scenario is available today and in the embryonic stages of employment. Why, then, is the USAF scenario dated 1990? Well, USAF has been studying local communication updates for some time, but thus far there has been little real progress. With the current and the predicted funds shortages, most of the USAF's communication development efforts are going toward new command and control communications (C³) systems such as the World-Wide Military Command and Control Systems (WWMCCS). Nevertheless, there is a very real need to modernize intraoffice/intrabase communication networks.

USAF actually began examining local communication improvement options in the early '70s. In 1972 MITRE Corporation completed a year-long study on using the CATV "wired city" concept for an improved base network. They proposed a Universal Intra-Base Communications (UNIBAC) system that would integrate data processing with audio and video signals to form an interactive information handling system capable of providing a wide range of services. The system would allow offices to tailor terminal configuration to particular needs through various modular keyboard and video display configurations. Although telephone services were not included in the system, current telephone equipment is compatible with the UNIBAC concept.¹⁹

Rather than proceed with the MITRE proposal₁ USAF chose to establish a Base Communications Analysis (BCM) group to study alternatives further. This represented an initial in-house effort to identify, investigate, and propose conceptual solutions to base information transfer problems on a total system basis projected into the 1985 time frame. Base communications, administrative services, and data automation--the user groups primarily concerned with intrabase information transfer-were included in the study along with 20 other functional support areas.²⁰ Interestingly, the information function, which is a key element in information flow and is being entrusted with USAF's growing CATV assets, was not included in the analysis.

To anyone involved with base communications, the BCM groups initial assessment of current base systems was predictable. They found a proliferation of subsystems, designed to meet specific user needs, with major interfacing problems. While long haul systems had improved dramatically, they saw base systems that had remained relatively stagnant over the past 30 years.²¹

For example, most base telephone exchanges are step-by-step electromagnetic systems operating on the same basic design as a 1928 exchange. They are expensive to maintain and operate, but they do meet most basic user needs. Where they have not met increased digital data needs, "engineering by addition" has produced the current incompatibility problems.²²

We can transmit a message halfway around the world in a few minutes, but the process and time required to get it to and from the base communication center is about the same as in 1947. About the most significant changes in the base distribution system over the past three decades have been the introduction of the electric typewriter and the trade-in of bicycles for mobile distribution vans.²³

The BCM study group looked at six alternative concepts:

• Concept 1 was to continue operating and maintaining the various parallel sub-systems that now comprise the base information transfer system and respond only to individual program requirements for new capabilities. In other words, more diverse proliferation.
• Concept 2 provided a new electronic analog circuit switch to handle integration of most special circuits. Video circuits were handled by a separate dedicated system.
• Concept 3A simply represented a further refinement of Concept 2 and was a dead end in achieving total system integration.
• Concept 3B preserved the present telephone switch and provided a CATV-type broadband transmission medium-a dual coaxial cable in tree configuration--capable of handling all digital and pictorial services in one distribution plant. The digital add-on capability of the system seemed to make it a logical evolutionary step in total system integration.
• Concept 4A provided an all-new set of distribution hub switches with a common control center. Obviously, this is a very expensive and complex option.
• Concept 4B was an extension of Concept B using narrow-band frequency slots to provide the necessary analog channels to incorporate the telephone system.²⁴

The Air Force must pursue one of these latter options to obtain an integrated system. Given the preference for incremental funding, it. would probably be more viable to obtain Concept 3B capability and then add the Concept 4B option later. Also, life-cycle cost data over a 16-year period (Figure 1) show that all alternatives have a lower operating cost than present labor intense Concept 1 operations. To date, however, USAF seems to be continuing down the same old path, using add-on engineering to accommodate new requirements.

Meanwhile, USAF's administrative people apparently have tired of waiting for a new communication system to develop and have pressed for the development of the new word processing centers mentioned earlier. One of the more promising efforts in this area is Air Force System Command's Project IMPACT (Improved Administrative Capability Test). The project is designed to demonstrate an optimal automated office system that will provide the greatest benefits in reduced manpower and increased administrative efficiencies. Results of the test, which will be conducted over the next three years at Electronic Systems Division, should help develop and refine criteria for automated office systems throughout the USAF. These centers promise to speed typing and editing, but without an improved electronic distribution system, they can do relatively little about moving the paperwork faster. It is hoped that the systems employed in these centers will be compatible with future information transfer systems. Otherwise, development problems will be compounded through the proliferation of diverse word-processing equipment.

There is a very real need and s very great challenge in updating local USAF information systems. The Air Force needs a new intraoffice/intrabase communication system, but there are many problems associated with developing such a system. Designers face complex choices in a wide variety of design options, and customer requirements are difficult to determine. New systems involve high-risk technology and are difficult to phase in to existing installations. The ideal system should provide efficient, modular elements that can be economically connected to any appropriate information resources. The challenge is to develop a planned evolutionary process to integrate new technology with existing systems.²⁵

USAF has been trying unsuccessfully for the past five years to develop such a concept. Insufficient funds and lack of central direction have contributed to the inability to define an Air Force system adequately. The recently established Assistant Chief of Staff, Communications and Computer Resources should provide the necessary cohesive direction, provided USAF adopts the philosophy that modernization is essential and is willing and able to devote sufficient funds toward such a system. In developing its plan, USAF should ride piggyback on civilian CATV wherever possible, to save money and provide interface with regional and national systems as they develop.

Projected future military manpower shortages make it imperative that USAF get the most from each person. and improved local information transfer systems could tremendously increase administrative productivity. If the USAF fails to anticipate the full potential of the information technology revolution, it may find itself unable to manage 1990 "space shuttle" type operations with a biplane communication system.

1. Robert J. Glassing and William P. White, Mass Media: The Invisible Environment (Palo Alto, California: Science Research Associates, Inc., 1973), p. 306.

2. Ibid., p. 3.

3. Robert J. Glassing and William P. White, Mass Media: The Invisible World Revisited (Palo Alto, California: Science Research Associates, Inc., 1976), p. 26

4. Ibid., p. 23.

5. Glessing and White, Mass Media: The Invisible Environment, p. 308.

6. Glessing and White, Mass Media: The Invisible World Revisited, p. 23.

7. Ibid.

8. Ibid., p. 24.

9. Lt. Col. D. L. Eppinger, USAF, "Cable TV (CATV): Commercial Growth and Air Force Application," Unpublished Air War College Study, Air University, Maxwell AFB, Alabama, 1973.

10. USAF, Secretary of Air Force, Office of Information, "Air Force Cable Television Survey," Washington: SAFOI, December 1975.

11. Glessing and White, Mass Media: The Invisible Environment, p. 308.

12. Ben H. Bagdikian, Information Machines: Their Impaction Men and the Media (New York: Harper and Row, 1972), p. 190.

13. Ibid., p. 193.

14. Glessing and White, Mass Media: The Invisible World Revisited, p. 53.

15. Ibid.

16. Ibid., p. 55.

17. Ibid., p. 54.

18. Bagdikian, p. 180.

19. USAF, Air Force Systems Command, UNIBAC: Concepts and Applications, vol. 1, Bedford, Massachusetts: MITRE Corporation, 1972, p. 8.

20. USAF, Air Force Systems Command, Mission Analysis Air Force Base Communications: 1985, vol. IA, Hanscom Field, Massachusetts: Electronic Systems Division, 1978, p. 1.

21. USAF, Air Force Systems Command, Mission Analysis Air Force Base Communications—1985, vol IB, Hanscom Field Massachusetts: Electronic Systems Division, 1973, p. 6.

22. Ibid., p. 4.

23. Ibid., p. 5.

24. Ibid., pp. 58-71.

25. USAF, Air Force Systems Command, UNIBAC: Concepts and Applications, p. 1.

Major Jerry C. Hix (M.A., University of Denver) is Chief of Internal Information and Plans, North American Air Defense Command/ Aerospace Defense command. He is a career information officer and has served as Director of Information for the Alaskan communications region and Air Force Institute of Technology. He has written extensively for base and local newspapers and published several magazine articles. Major Hix is a graduate of Air Command and Staff College.

Disclaimer

The conclusions and opinions expressed in this document are those of the author cultivated in the freedom of expression, academic environment of Air University. They do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, the United States Air Force or the Air University.

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