Document created: 24 August 04
Air University Review,
July-August
1970
Lieutenant General Harry E. Goldsworthy
A new age began when man first stepped onto the moon at 2256 EDT on 20 July 1969. Many of the millions who watched the television image of Neil A. Armstrong setting foot on the lunar soil sensed that the earth will never be the same again. Neither will the moon. The moon is no longer merely a disembodied orb, a subject of myth, an abstraction in the sky. It has been visited and is now a place. The epic event perhaps heralded the dawn of interplanetary commerce. Coupled with other rapid developments in technology, it brought new dimensions to space travel.
A new era has also begun in the field of logistics. We have moved into the age of the C-5 and a revolution in airlift. We have reached the threshold of third-generation computer hardware in advanced logistics planning and management. Our vaunted knack for doing the impossible, although it takes a little longer, has enabled us to meet the challenge of providing timely logistics support to our combat forces in Southeast Asia at the end of a 10,000-mile pipeline while concurrently reducing our on-the-shelf stocks.
But that was back in the sixties. Where do we go in the seventies?
Maybe Mars and beyond. Outer space, however, isn’t where all the action is going to be. Not by any means. Right here, back on earth, the decade just opening is going to be a lively one. The dimensions of change in the management environment in the seventies may be greater than in any comparable period in history. The future is not all laid out, of course. In the logistics area, though, it is possible to predict at least some of the challenging changes of the coming years. Great chunks of the future have already begun to happen, and some of the developments started during the last decade will come to full bloom in the seventies.
Our changing management environment may beggar predictions, but the trends of today will shape the logistics of the future. A number of these trends seem to me significant.
The first is the trend toward centralization of asset control. We are already well along the road toward centralization, and I think we may reasonably expect to go further in this direction in the next ten years. I base my judgment on such things as the compression of time we are experiencing, the economics involved, the shrinking world that improved communications and transportation have brought about, and the unprecedented growth of computer technology.
· By the compression of time I mean that, in today’s military environment, decision and action follow each other more closely than ever before. Since reaction time is shrinking, the logistics manager must have a handle on his capability at all times; he must know what he has, where it is, and what condition it is in—and there is no time to write letters. Hence, control of assets at a level having a broad overview seems not only inevitable but necessary.
· By economics I mean that modern weapons and their support have become increasingly costly so that today, with our changing management environment, inflation, and austerity climate, even tighter control of the development and acquisition process is essential to the economic well-being of the nation. We must—and we do—think in terms of total national capability and pressing domestic needs, rather than in terms of any particular weapon system. This means that the military inventory of the late seventies, and to some extent even that of today, may be determined by budgetary allocations made at ever higher echelons.
· By a shrinking world I mean that the constantly increasing speed of communications and transportation has brought about an increasingly close relationship among political, military, social, and economic objectives. And none of these can be pursued intelligently in isolation from the others. It is still an axiom of good management that decisions should be made at the lowest level having access to all the facts, and that is the current trend under the present administration of the Department of Defense. But the facts of military life in these days of austerity and budgetary restraints are increasingly also the facts of political life, of social life, of economic life. And the level at which an overview is possible becomes increasingly higher.
· The major development that has made centralized control possible has been computer technology, combined with improved communications. The electronic computer, just past its twenty-third birthday, has come of age, having progressed in a remarkably short time from a scientific curiosity to an essential part of our logistics management operation. In 1951 the Air Force bought its first computer; today we have 1100. In many respects computers have erased time, altered the boundaries and relationships that affect our lives and organizations, and accelerated the rate of change to the point described by someone who once entitled a speech, “The Effect of Computers on Progress or By the Time You’ve Said It, It’s Happened!”
The computer has already become well known in its short life-span for its uncanny ability to store, retrieve, and compare vast amounts of data. Most important to us, of course, the computer carries out its functions at incredible speeds. We can obtain in minutes or hours information which previously took days or weeks to compile. Our officer personnel system and our base supply systems are computerized, and our other systems are fast becoming so. We are looking to computers to forecast inventory requirements, formulate budget and financial plans, conduct war-gaming, and tell us (through simulation) what downstream problems we may encounter on new systems. Information is the lifeblood of control, and we look for a vastly expanded use of computer-based information systems in all phases of logistics management. The additional improvements in computers and data automation techniques will be invaluable in providing the management data necessary to support our various aerospace programs logistically in the seventies.
On the basis of these rapid, even revolutionary, advances in computer technology, the late General Thomas P. Gerrity envisioned the need for a single, integrated, closed-loop logistics system exploiting the most modern technology in system engineering, design, data processing, and telecommunications to replace several hundred older and obsolescent systems. He directed the establishment of the Advanced Logistics Systems Center, a separate operating agency of the Air Force Logistics Command (now a function of the AFLC Comptroller) at Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio. The center is definitizing the design of the Air Force Advanced Logistics System, a twenty-first century logistics system for implementation in the early 1970’s, applying electronic data processing (EDP) to the management process in all aspects of logistics.
With this kind of visibility at the top, we will be able to reduce further our support inventory, cut the pipeline inventory through rapid transportation, and generally increase the responsiveness of our logistics support system.
The second trend involves the growing interdependence and interrelationship of all elements of the systems and logistics function. In logistics management today we no longer think in terms of separate functions such as supply, maintenance, procurement, or transportation. We think of all these things as a single integrated logistics process. The logistics manager of the seventies has to be, to some degree, a maintenance man, a supply specialist, a personnel manager, a procurement specialist, an accountant and data processing expert, and, above all, a cost-effective manager.
The requirement for what we call integrated logistics management has been brought about and supported by the revolution in automatic data processing mentioned earlier. For we in logistics management have long been aware that we could not allow the uncontrolled proliferation of automatic data processing within various functional areas without some effort to integrate all of this capability into a single system. We are still some way from realizing the totally integrated system, but we have taken a number of significant steps in that direction.
In the supply area, for example, we have installed at 150 major Air Force bases around the world a Standard Base Level Supply System utilizing the Univac 1050-II computer. We are already realizing a marked improvement in resource accounting and control, in accuracy and speed of reporting, and in improved logistics reaction time. With this system the Air Force now enjoys real-time requisitioning and inventory status capability. By standardizing computer hardware, data systems, and supply procedures, we have made significant improvements in our logistics system, reduced inventories, improved customer support to tactical units, and reallocated several thousand manpower spaces to other essential functions. We are now in the process of expanding that capability to include munitions, commissaries, and clothing sales store accounts.
This same kind of visibility will be achieved at the wholesale or depot level through a system known as the Air Force Reparable Assets Management System (AFRAMS). This computer-based system will give the inventory manager knowledge of the number, condition, and location of the items he manages. He will apply the AFRAMS system on a worldwide basis to some 85,000 reparable items. Through this closed-loop information process, the inventory managers will have the visibility to centrally control these assets globally.
Because this is where the real challenge lies in the logistics area, a very significant effort is now under way in the Air Force to develop the Advanced Logistics System that will further explore the state of the art in communications management and computer science to provide the essential management data required to make the thousands of decisions in the management of logistics requirements, procurement, distribution, transportation, and fiscal matters.
Currently, we have some 397 individual data subsystems that are loosely interrelated and interfaced with other systems. They run on some 130 small, medium, and large computers. These types of data system work and are effective, but they are not efficient enough for the modern logistics support job. They are the results of doing business “as best we can” on second-generation computers, which are currently saturated.
The new system, as it is being planned, will use third-generation computers with capabilities far in excess of what we now have. New concepts will be incorporated to provide real-time visibility and on-line decision-making. It will be a closed-loop system, linking bases, depots, and contractors served by a common super data bank. The many functional, vertically oriented systems we have today will become one system, with integrated processes, to give us the management visibility we need to meet the logistic challenges of the seventies.
In the maintenance area, we are developing an improved Maintenance Management Information and Control System (MMICS). This is also computer-based and will be a major step toward consolidating and improving the various procedures of data gathering, reports, controls, and scheduling necessary to the base and depot maintenance functions. MMICS will commit all equipment historical data, Time Compliance Technical Orders (TCTO), and maintenance actions to computer storage for immediate call-up and display when required in the maintenance management process. Aircraft schedules, shop workloads, training schedules, etc., will be printed upon request in accordance with preprogrammed requirements. While we do not anticipate that MMICS will revolutionize our maintenance operations, it is expected to improve significantly our maintenance management capability at base level and modernize our maintenance data collection, processing, and dissemination capabilities.
These developments are indicators of the direction of our efforts toward integrated logistics management. With the aid of the abundant logistics information which computers can supply, the logistics manager will be able to make decisions spanning the entire scope of logistics.
Another area which seems worthy of mention involves our participation in the common defense market. Under the Military Sales Program, three significant things are happening:
The first is that free world nations are buying—not surplus equipment—but first-line items from the same production lines that are supplying the U.S. The F-5, C-130, and F-4 are cases in point. The result is a degree of uniformity in hardware.
The second fact is that, under cooperative logistics arrangements, these same nations are buying into our service and support capability up to agreed dollar levels. This support is provided by the same depots and facilities that support our own military units.
Third, under the Training Sales Program, we have trained more than 12,000 foreign students in the use of equipment which the nations are buying from us. At any given time, there are 1500 foreign students undergoing training in the United States. This combination of first-line equipment, first-line support, and first-line training can only enhance our defensive position through commonality of military equipment and training.
Another significant trend is in space logistics. So much has been written and said on the subject since the successful Apollo moon missions that it will suffice merely to point out that logistics will be a pacing factor in sustained space operations—so much so that logistics will largely determine the success or failure of space missions in the coming decade.
We are on the verge of a revolution in air logistics. It is being brought about primarily by a greatly increased airlift capability represented by such developments as the C-5 Galaxy. This capability is resulting in a reduction in ton-mile costs that puts airlift in direct competition with other forms of transportation. It means that, as costs come down, more and more items will become eligible for airlift. Conservative projections show that the approximately 500 million ton-miles of normal outbound channel cargo per year (which we carried in FY 64, prior to Southeast Asia) could increase several-fold. There are two factors supporting this: (1) the Southeast Asia conflict has shown the value of airlift in the routine resupply of deployed forces; and (2) more commodities should become air-eligible as lower tariff rates are realized through more efficient operation of the airlift system and reduced costs to operate the C-141/C-5 fleet. Excluding bulk items and those not normally carried by air, such as automobiles and household goods, we expect to be able to ship a much larger percentage of our Air Force tonnage by air in the seventies.
Delivery to Military Airlift Command (MAC) of the first Galaxy last December 17 (the 66th anniversary of the Wright brothers’ first flight) keynoted the airlift modernization program that began five years ago. Commenting on the significance of the occasion, General John D. Ryan, Air Force Chief of Staff, said: “This modernization will result in an airlift force that—with fewer aircraft—will be almost four times more productive than the force we had just five years ago.” Teamed with the C-141 Starlifter, the C-5 will enable MAC to airlift not only the complete personnel complement of an Army division but virtually all the equipment it needs to sustain combat operations as well. The C-5 will be able to fly to any point in the world on short notice at jet speeds with a payload of 265,000 pounds; to carry 50 tons 5600 miles, or 110 tons 3050 miles, at more than 500 miles an hour.
The air vehicle is, of course, the pacing factor in improved airlift capability, but we should not overlook the fact that there have been concurrent supporting developments over the whole spectrum of transportation. There are in existence, for example, a number of greatly improved materials handling systems, one of which is the 463L. We are also attempting to standardize, internationally, an intermodal shipping container compatible with all means of transportation. And our continued implementation of the “bare base” concept means greater use of airlift.
If we put together all these factors of rapid communication, automatic data processing, increased lift capability, greater speed, standardized packaging, and the reduction of losses due to breakage in handling, there is a basis for an optimistic outlook for logistics.
New weapon systems acquisition programs will provide some of the real challenges in the seventies, for austerity, today and in the foreseeable future, will require us to do more with less. Not only will we face pressures which will force somewhat greater curbs in spending than some might deem desirable, but we will also have to recognize the responsibility for reducing the defense share of the tax dollar in order to help curb inflation and free resources for urgent domestic needs. We are equally aware of the need to maintain defense readiness at a sufficient level and push forward vigorously with development of the weapons, equipment, and logistics support necessary to meet the requirements of our mission.
New weapon systems like the F-15 Air Superiority Fighter and the B-1 Advanced Manned Strategic Aircraft (AMSA) will be costly and complex. They are being designed for maintainability, reliability, and serviceability. Aerospace ground equipment (AGE) and support equipment will be common, standardized, and designed early in the planning as part of the weapon system, not as an afterthought.
Cost growth avoidance will be another of the challenges in the seventies. Both Congress and the public expect us to give more precise estimates of what our new weapons will cost. And they expect us to see to it that the cost stays within those estimates.
One way we are attacking this problem is through the milestone approach. The F-15 contract awarded to McDonnell-Douglas, for example, incorporates a series of well-defined and demonstrable milestones by which we can measure the contractor’s progress. The milestone concept will allow us to ensure that the contractor has actually accomplished the agreed upon development at certain points in time and cost. In the event the required progress is not attained, we will then be able to adjust schedules, thereby reducing the overlap between the engineering and production phases which has caused problems in the procurement of other systems. The milestone approach will also allow us to avoid committing large sums to production without the quantitative data which a development and test program should provide. We are convinced that the streamlined program management approach instituted for the F-15 will permit us to take immediate action as problem areas arise and maintain the emphasis we have placed on the development of this important weapon system.
Precisely what the scope and nature of the changes in the new decade will be is a matter of conjecture, but this much we can predict with accuracy: that with the ever increasing cost of weapon systems, we will have to find better, more efficient, and more economical ways of doing the logistics job. In this environment, our ability to attract young men into the Air Force logistics field will present a continuing challenge. A recent survey, made by the Air Force Personnel Center at Randolph AFB, Texas, indicates that over 50 percent of the officers who entered the service in 1966 and are now serving in logistics career fields plan to leave the service at the end of their commitment.
What attracts a young man to a particular field of endeavor? Lieutenant General Thomas S. Moorman, Superintendent of the Air Force Academy, answered the question this way: “The young man of today wants responsibility. He wants challenge . . . he wants a feeling of accomplishment... and he wants recognition of his efforts.” This is a basic and universal desire. The Air Force has been, and still is to a degree, successful in attracting a sufficient number of young men to join the service ranks on the basis that they can fulfill their personal ambitions and desires. The problem of retaining the cream of the crop, so to speak, is becoming more difficult, though. Initially, the general image of federal service does not appeal to many qualified young men. The experience of some of those who do join the ranks is far from satisfactory.
We must assure the young officer, airman, and civilian that he will be given every opportunity to demonstrate his initiative, industry, professional competence, and drive to his superiors. He must be convinced that the degree of his involvement in performing and managing essential logistics functions will be determined primarily by his own ability, dedication, and initiative.
The logistician of the seventies will have to be more of a specialist and a professional logistician. He will have to be highly skilled in new, improved management techniques and qualified to cope with the varied and complex logistics problems of the new decade.
To help prepare our logisticians to meet these challenges of the seventies, we have expanded the program of continuing education for logistics managers. The Defense Logistics Management Training Catalogue now lists 144 individual courses that are available to Air Force students. These are identifiable with 17 subject areas. Just about all logistics functional fields and several peculiar management techniques or skills are covered. The courses are taught by Air Force, Army, and Navy schools. In addition, the Air Force Institute of Technology School of Systems and Logistics offers 35 courses, ranging in length from one to nine weeks. Twenty of the courses are joint, or DOD-designated, and 15 are peculiar to the Air Force.
We encourage qualified officers, of all ranks, to enter the graduate course. We believe that one of the real challenges of the seventies, if we are to retain our logistics personnel, is to closely monitor assignments of the graduates to ensure that they are given responsible jobs which will challenge their newly acquired skills.
Clearly, today’s logistics management trends will shape the future of logistics in the new decade. But we cannot predict the future. Our transistorized crystal ball is no more up-to-date than the silent shimmer of the fortune-teller’s glass was in the halcyon precomputer days. Nevertheless, I think we can safely say the sixties will be remembered as the decade in which the old “tried and true” method of logistics management had its finest and final hour.
As we move ahead in the new decade, with the C-5 coming into the inventory, the F -15 (now in the acquisition phase), and, hopefully, the B-1 AMSA replacing Our aging B-52s, there will be a greater premium on quality of forces, people, and equipment. Present budget restraints and the austere outlook on the national scene would seem to indicate that.
We may face some lean years ahead in the seventies, but our responsibilities in the logistics area will not diminish. If anything, they will continue to increase in view of the pace of technological progress.
The real challenge of the decade just starting will be to find better ways to apply effective management techniques to the solution of our problems. In short, we will just have to do a better job—and do it with less. That’s a huge order. But I am confident that by using the new, improved management techniques and with our force of motivated, highly dedicated professional logisticians we can—and will—meet the logistics challenge of the seventies.
Hq United States Air Force
Lieutenant General Harry E. Goldsworthy (B.S., Washington State College) is Deputy Chief of Staff for System and Logistics, Hq USAF,. After flying training (1940), he flew submarine patrol over the Caribbean until 1943. He was Commander, 42d Bombardment Group, Pacific Theater, when the war ended and was then assigned to occupation duty in Japan. Subsequent assignments have included bomb group commander, Carswell AFB, Texas; member, Weapons Systems Evaluation Group, Hq USAF; DCS/O, Hq Air Providing Ground Command, Eglin AFB, Florida; IG, late C/S, Seven-teenth Air Force, Morocco and Libya; Vice Commander, 4061st Air Refueling Wing, SAC, and Commander, Site Activation Task Force, first Minute-man ICBM Wing, Malmstrom AFB, Montana; Director of Production and Programs, DCS/S&L, Hq USAF; and Commander, Aeronautical System Division, AFSC, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio, General Goldsworthy is a graduate of Command and General Staff School, Air Command and Staff School, Army War College, and Industrial College of the Armed Forces.
Disclaimer
The conclusions and opinions expressed in this
document are those of the author cultivated in the freedom of expression,
academic environment of Air University. They do not reflect the official
position of the U.S. Government, Department of Defense, the United States Air
Force or the Air University.
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